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Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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All inference is about generalizing from sample to population
Measurement error in monkey studies
“I mean, what exact buttons do I have to hit?”
Improvements to Kindle Version of BDA3
“The comment section is open, but I’m not going to read them”
Workshop for Women in Machine Learning
BDA3 table of contents (also a new paper on visualization)
Job opening at an organization that promotes reproducible research!
Correcting for multiple comparisons in a Bayesian regression model
BDA3 still (I hope) at 40% off! (and a link to one of my favorite papers)
A lot of statistical methods have this flavor, that they are a solution to a mathematical problem that has been posed without a careful enough sense of whether the problem is worth solving in the first place
Somebody’s looking for a book on time series analysis in the style of Angrist and Pischke, or Gelman and Hill
BDA at 40% off!
Learning about correlations using cross-sectional and over-time comparisons between and within countries
More on AIC, WAIC, etc
Blaming scientific fraud on the Kuhnians
The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making
Convincing Evidence
Test scores and grades predict job performance (but maybe not at Google)
Fixing the race, ethnicity, and national origin questions on the U.S. Census
Debutante Hill
The birthday problem
Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models
For chrissake, just make up an analysis already! We have a lab here to run, y’know?
Statistical significance and the dangerous lure of certainty
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august comments andrew inference filed statistics sample generalizing statistical people data i’ google multiple bayesian model regression comparisons analysis performance paper don’ question causal book posted underbayesian race good scores writes science association job kindle here’ methods error variables correlation predictive reading study theory examples buttons origin it’ rate grades linear edition miscellaneous work predictors evidence amazon link 40% waic prior problem measured small » filed simple predict continue undermiscellaneous modeling worth series case associations tests significance

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assume reply american wrote sort life understanding census papers weeks that’ observational national colleagues understand blog threshold employees replica great solution agree measure assumptions activity staffetta” contents reduced weingart chart experiment write http predicting underdecision effort approach weighting estimate situations points machine inhabitants women thought effects material interesting level undercausal criterion prediction simulation couple original criteria cross-sectional observation native group instrument “not fact prewitt variable measures basis process fitting sociology bda3 computing correcting article journal weakly am in 3rd reproducible on 20 argument promotes visualization opening general sigma^2 principles selection informative shrinkage recommends don’t validity identification on 16 sends handover charts economists on 13 readers decide reputation volume hill posted authorship attitudes prefer credibility experience suppose close findings nations forecasts relevant including on 15 datasets predictor germany equally weighted younger coefficients accurate expected iceland weight percent theoretical style pure pretty cognitive flavor mathematical solving careful posed ability highly variability setting address statistically-significant claims favorite weaker pool colleague claim margins fixed abstract written topic extremely perspective applied robust conventional conclusions aware comparison useless decades interview editors valid 595 c response limit asked amazon’ moving cases pdf period apply daniel working relationship open them” akaike masked lakeland publication we’ books introducing responsibility underzombies reduce trust big count dangerous lure goal thinking there’ on 8 on 22 am i hypothesis correct attitude jay stories menstrual converted on 24 on 21 folks he’ responded

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observation native group instrument “not fact prewitt variable measures basis process fitting sociology bda3 computing correcting article journal weakly am in 3rd reproducible on 20 argument promotes visualization opening general sigma^2 principles selection informative shrinkage recommends don’t validity identification on 16 sends handover charts economists on 13 readers decide reputation volume hill posted authorship attitudes prefer credibility experience suppose close findings nations forecasts relevant including on 15 datasets predictor germany equally weighted younger coefficients accurate expected iceland weight percent theoretical style pure pretty cognitive flavor mathematical solving careful posed ability highly variability setting address statistically-significant claims favorite weaker pool colleague claim margins fixed abstract written topic extremely perspective applied robust conventional conclusions aware comparison useless decades interview editors valid 595 c response limit asked amazon’ moving cases pdf period apply daniel working relationship open them” akaike masked lakeland publication we’ books introducing responsibility underzombies reduce trust big count dangerous lure goal thinking there’ on 8 on 22 am i hypothesis correct attitude jay stories menstrual converted on 24 on 21 folks he’ responded choosing easily statisticians practitioners occur author’ © 2011 andrew researchers chosen anecdotal personal trusted am keith anti-endorse sympathy claimed 05″ switch o’ estimation bias concepts reliability circumference cycle recommending precision textbooks emphasize care random sampling arguing rourke contingent clothing collection looked treatment assignment graphics teaching uncategorized zombies clarify jeff theme promiscuously am eric leek wouldn’ matei elisa bertino rafael controversy you’re fraud scientific laszlo bock yesterday’s wisdom upending certainty posted kuhnians posted wordpress irizarry endorse sechrest methodological functional noise discoveries stringent central decisions procedures pietarinen gelman powered sorin discovery stringency tradeoff edited ahti-veikko roles raising suggests criticize details established election-forecasting procedure regularly fields developing impact populationcedric populationmayo modeling political graefe academic elections populationmax science public brewer making posted on 14 journals demonstrate am andreas kind populationjona identify inference decision statistics causal categories administrative art bayesian theory economics literature miscellaneous subset “optimally” weights science miscellaneous composite reliable potts noisy studiesscott target populationsuresh populationandrew 1970s chris analytical empirical forecast average 10*x certainty’ a*g j=3 computing statistical entries search hilariously comments rahul 1*x 2*x equal-weighting sets evidence posted received p-values p-value convincing idea j=1 s^2 ‘statistical populationjudea beauty populationgeorge haven’ disbelieve populationanonymous well-calibrated populationscott populationbrendon equal-weights includes jona populationcorey populationsomewhere multiplicative pearl health sociology sports stan statistical freakonometrics distribution improper scott puts statistics multilevel limits negro african watanabe-akaike blaming hispanic black white instruction mark more” boxes latino spanish islander am jessy on 9 enrolled principal pacific hawaiian indian alaska deviance asian” out-of-sample-prediction origin” am in on 12 within-sample flawed efforts census posted focus contribution compare involved choices classify americans integrating improving replace race” gradual decennial bureau director adjustment bias-corrected tribe suggestion problem posted on 10 birthday underliterature davidson am a human born baby friend insights jenny nature society 1950s fun pulp didn’ window plot bodies dead moved commented manner demographic gather purposes descriptions debutante survey community drop models posted relying iffy on 11 am i fit pocket plane spare copy ordered estimated website curious would’ context practice compounds gem workplace workup continues psychology insert employment settings organizational nmr factors total brand middle attracting brightest built company reporting supplemental play assuming compound elemental thinks they’re diffusion collaboration fiction problem’ solved disappoint determined transcripts happened lose flipside argued coauthorship discussions reminded advantages verkuilen sight fundamental - across variety prospective self-selection plan schools served dramatically depressed characteristics compensating range leave acted compelling concludes recognized ” filed fixing preparing ethnicity confirmed thousands difficulty chapter common misinterpret select fared y’ doesn’t chrissake hoping admissions competitive pm ben sheer stuck applicants hyde applicable watanabe ultimate subtle couldn’ calculations motivations homogeneous applicant qualified incoming class york hype” policy cowen’ glad years hadn’ learned tyler am that’ suppliers e-book drm taggedbda3 pdf 1 bothered cowen tahoe lake nevada usa december 2013 http nips learning co-located workshop worse learning posted pm this abstracts workshop source vital essentially convert viewer experienced setup issues printer mathematics calver chapman guarantee improvement publish launched math judging andrew’ short delay conversion appears difficult equations badly held images making wimlworkshop org deadline models c regularization started programming monte hamiltonian approximations 14 propagation 13 draws 13 effective variational inference 13 expectation carlo 607 and reward models and patient tomoki tokuda dirichlet models 23 models 21 chapters gaussian models 22 mixture r-hat 11 split image cover paragraph earlier sections beautiful offer september submissions ‘workshop learning’ posting all-new introduction accuracy 1-7 evaluation comparison 10 environments 11 parameters 7 variance checking spell example 2 distributions 5 priors editor bda2 hypothetical outcomes interventions can’ leap escape population gary causation rubin’ step statement helpful generalization perfectly combative am following linguist noam chomsky studies posted included randomized clean typically extent generalizes systems experimental ultimately language love expand suggest” chided skirted content home books blogroll sponsors authors feed all skip population posted am jeff walker efficient narrow worthwhile” confounders rarely hypothesis” effectively causally joint studied field pursue stuff largish disgraced primatologist 20% cells single week see— pancreatic leukemia concentrate proof upside experiments holland let’ captures enterprise bda3 posted improvements bob carpenter defective undersociology uncertainty 80% reach power funded live turning starts measurements code secret on 23 am this horse moral hauser marc livingston wrong— burgers reporter gabriel jon’ office year felt posts thrown suddenly differences rhodes scientist non-scientist year’ goodrich mechelen deny plausibility simply evidence” per-una-vera-staffetta-generazionale lavoce economic discuss retirement anticipate jobs youngs economist noisefromamerika articolo draw scatterplot misleading puzzle carry negative casual positive occupazione-ricambio-intergenerazionale author doesn’ speak encourage government teaching undereconomics pm our publisher exciting informs suggestions area banerjee spatial carlin gelfand focused news selling staffetta italy generazioni” generations young rinaldi am antonio learning enjoy correlations over-time countries posted 300k luxembourg schwarz infty$ view consequence observations numbers alpha$ probability method nested akaike’ consistent rejected falsely assumed variances equivalent loss efficiency ‘more asymptotically future assert appreciably populations opposed grand eddy geisser failure ethical olders youngers viceversa is-linear-regression-unethical-in-that-it-gives-more-weight-to-cases-that-are-far-from-the-average andrewgelman left 500k compared 80m remember opinion rates angelika pm following linde pulls quote etc posted implicit comparing action illusion understood handle closest reference betas multivariate accomplish criticism conditional concerns putting framework structured hierarchically data— categorical categories reasonable obtaining bridging gradually classical fully-informative perspectives problems direction demonstrating wrong concentrated weak issue penalty additional pm i graphics told reproducibility initiative ‘bda3 matrices tuerlinckx francis visualizing distributions covariance shades gray” educational northrup effectiveness estimates group-level am joe model posted areas standard cancer sounds ‘job multilevel on 19 tigers demands lopsided too-clever-by-half tables contingency unreasonable professors faculty students members demanded corrections” technical sophistication harmless student econometrics mention favourite ghatak am devrup angrist somebody’ pischke gelman on 17 graduate defended model-building content place posted on 18 am stuart deal pushing check am follow sale money royalties hurlbert forwarded bayesian-shy identical exaggerated approaches pride attached reaches yajima hill non-problem” celia lombardi etc’

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statistical

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inference bda3 science problem social causal modeling

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bda3 science problem social causal modeling 40% learning hill analysis models comparisons job bayesian

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40% learning hill analysis models comparisons job bayesian making beauty improper robust decision linear fraud countries over-time cross-sectional correlations bda aic scientific blaming convincing waic kuhnians performance criteria chrissake predictive understanding birthday y’ significance comments categories certainty lure dangerous debutante census gelman google predict grades scores fixing race questions origin national ethnicity evidence worth workshop them” i’m open women machine visualization paper contents table version kindle measurement population sample generalizing error monkey improvements buttons studies opening organization careful posed mathematical solution solving somebody’ angrist style series book flavor methods multiple correcting reproducible promotes regression model lot papers favorite link pischke